This is long, and very likely boring, but I wanted to try it anyway.


It was, by all popular accounts, exactly 2050 years ago today that a 
group of uppitty Senators and noblemen gathered in Rome to hack the 
living shit out of their esteemed dictator, Gaius Julius Caesar. The 
conspirators considered this murder to be a noble act of tyrranicide. 
Rome actually had a rather proud history of deposing kings up to this 
point. In fact, Livy tells us that the Republic was established 
in the first place thanks to a guy named Lucius Junius Brutus overthrew 
Rome's seventh and last King, Lucius Tarquinius Superbus a.k.a. Tarquin 
the Proud (a.k.a. Grand Moff Tarquin).

(a word of advice for prospective sovereigns - subjects historically 
dislike surnames like "the Greatest," "the Strongest" or "the Awesome." 
Consider, as alternatives, "the Acceptable" or "the Not Actually So Bad 
Once He Has a Few Drinks In Him.")

So - this has troubled me for some time - why was it that the ouster
of the tyrant Tarquin brought about the birth of the Republic whereas 
the execution of the tyrant Casesar hastened its destruction?

I've been working on a guess - though my investigation has yielded more 
questions than answers.

For reasons which remain unclear, the conspirators neglected to include 
the most widely reknowned and respected orator in all of Roman history, 
Marcus Tullius Cicero, in their plans. This may have been because 
they feared Cicero would have tried to claim too much power, 
himself, but whatever their reasons it is clear that Cicero's 
involvement would have significantly altered the plan. 

As is hinted at in a letter to one of the conspirators written months 
after the assassination (see below), Cicero's plans for the Ides of 
March would have involved not simply the murder of a tyrant but a coup 
d'etat - eliminating Casesar's entire cadre of brigands from the Senate 
and high offices. What did Cicero know that the other conspirators 
didn't and how did he know it?

We don't generally believe Cicero to have been a violent man, by nature. 
He had raised armies and fought battles, but was far more widely known 
as a tremendously powerful politician. Years before Casesar came to 
power, Cicero had received a triumph for his political genius, having 
(ostensibly) saved the Rebuplic from the threat of Cataline. Indeed, 
having ordered Cataline's execution, Cicero had killed before in defense 
of the Republic. Why didn't the conspirators trust him to kill again?

In conducting a critical analysis of why the assassination of Caesar 
failed to save the Roman Republic but, in fact, may have hastened the 
outright establishment of the Roman Empire, one might apply the lessons 
of Barbara Tuchman's Guns_of_August. Indeed, I think Cicero's letters 
suggest that he was conscious of all these aspects, whereas the 
conpirators appeared not to dwell on any one of them.

Barbara Tuchman suggests that World-War I was such a clusterfuck for the 
following reasons:

Economic miscalculation
Unfounded belief in quick warfare
Breakdown in logistics
Breakdown in tactical communication
Over-reliance on morale and the offensive
Failure to consider political backlash
Outdated forms of wartime etiquette

. . . more later if the Fates permit.

-------------
Cicero's Letters to his Friends (EPISTULAE AD FAMILIARES), X. xxviii

CICERO to C. TREBONIUS(*1)

Rome, about February 2nd, 43 BCE

     How I should like you to have invited me to that most gorgeous
banquet on the Ides of March! We should have had no leavings(*2). But,
as it is, they give us such indigestion that the heavenly service you
have rendered the Republic is qualified by some grounds for complaint.
Indeed the fact that this curse of the country was withdrawn into
shelter by you, the most loyal of men, and thanks to your generosity
is still alive, makes me sometimes, though it is hardly right of me, a
little angry with you; since you left me with more trouble to deal
with by my single self than all the rest of the world without me. For
as soon as ever a Senate could be held under free conditions after the
most discreditable departure of Antony (*3), I resumed that old spirit
of mine, which you and that most doughty citizen, your father, have
always lauded and loved.

     For when the tribunes of the plebs had summoned the Senate on
December 20th, and were putting another question before the house, I
reviewed the whole constitutional situation, and speaking with intense
fervor, more by force of energy than of eloquence, I restored to a
drooping and weary Senate its ancient and traditional fortitude. That
day's doings, and my vigorous pleading, first inspired the people of
Rome with the hope of recovering their liberty. And indeed from that
day I have never permitted myself a moment's respite, I will not say
from merely thinking but from acting also in the interests of the
State.

     If I did not assume that affairs in the city and every
transaction is being fully reported to you, I should myself write you
a full account of them, hampered as I am by the most pressing
engagements. But all that you will learn from others; I shall give you
a few facts, and of them only a summary. We have a stout Senate,
though the consulars are some of them timorous, others disaffected.
Servius was a serious loss (*4). L. Caesar is thoroughly loyal at
heart, but his being Antony's uncle (*5) takes the edge off his
proposals. The consuls are admirable; D. Brutus is splendid; and
Caesar (*6) is a fine young fellow, and I have great hopes for him in
the future. This much, however, you must regard as certain, that had
he not promptly enrolled in the veterans, and had not two legions of
Antony's army crossed over to his command, and had not Antony been
faced by so terrible a danger, there is no form of crime or cruelty
Antony would not have perpetrated. Although I expect you have heard
all this, still I want you to have a clearer knowledge of it. I shall
write more fully if I find I have more leisure.

-------------------

(*1) C. Trebonius took a leading part in the conspiracy to assassinate
C. Julius Caesar, pulling Antony aside from the Senate chamber so that
the assassination could take place. Shortly after the murder he
proceeded to his province of Asia. He never received this letter, as
he was murdered by Dolabella in Smyrna before the end of January.
(Josephus JB xiv. 223-225)
(*2) i.e., no Antony left alive.
(*3) On November 28th Antony, hearing of the defection of the Fourth
Legion, hurried from Rome to Ariminum. Cicero says that "he did not
set out, but fled in full uniform" (Phil. v 24). According to Appian,
however (iii. 46), Antony's departure was "glorious."
(*4) Servius Sulpicius Rufus, already an invalid, had died when sent
by the Senate with two others on an embassy to Antony, then encamped
before Mutina, in January 43.
(*5) Lucius Caesar was the brother of Julia Caesaris, Antony's mother.
(*6) Gaius Julius Caesar Octavianus, the young Augustus